The Role of Certainty in Operational Projections

The role of ‘Certainty’ and ‘Operational Projections’ in Planning and Strategy Huddles

Its normal to expect participants in a business planning exercise to be imaginative, visionary and sometimes a bit over-optimistic. The role of the moderator is important here.

If the objective of the meeting is to rationalize, get lean, tweak things, shape up some of the processes then we are dealing with a set of realities that exist today and our knowledge in the room and event visibility can be sufficient to guide such rationalizing activities.

However, if the same room is filled with a set of people who have just started to build something (a business, product or channel) then the story is quite different. They have very little visibility of the road ahead of them. There will be a lot of assumptions that will not work. In such situations, too much rigidity in terms of planning and detailing should be avoided. Otherwise we might just kill the creative enthusiasm that holds the power of building something totally different and totally new.

At Procon we have experienced this innumerable times when we found that a failing business team is brought together to create a ‘Turnaround Plan’. They almost invariably end up projecting the future as though nothing has happened !! The role of the ‘Turnaround Expert’ is crucial here, to stop the CEO and the team from making business-as-usual plans to revive from near-bankruptcy.

The problem that we see in all these cases is that everyone seems to be eager to put some numbers on the wall. Then they step back to discuss.

Totally wrong approach.

Start with examining the ‘facts’ first. The ‘figures can and will follow. Investigate what’s working and what’s not. Check the underlying factors. Go deeper. The ‘Diagnostic Insight’ will lead to putting the right numbers on the wall.

Business Diagnostics is crucial.

We all believe that we know our blood chemistry, till we actually see a Lab report !!